Métodos estadísticos para la evaluación de la susceptibilidad por movimientos en masa
Resumen
Existen diferentes métodos que permiten establecer a escalas regionales la susceptibilidad a la ocurrencia de movimientos en masa. Entre los métodos más utilizados se encuentran los métodos estadísticos bivariado y multivariado, los cuales exigen un inventario de procesos de remoción en masa. En el presente estudio se evalúa y zonifica la susceptibilidad por movimientos en masa en el norte de los Andes colombianos, región conocida como valle de Aburrá, por dos métodos estadísticos, uno de ellos bivariado, denominado Peso de la Evidencia, y recomendado por el Servicio Geológico Colombiano para estudios de amenaza en suelos rurales; y un segundo método estadístico tipo multivariado, denominado Regresión Logística, de amplio uso a nivel mundial. Para ambos casos, la construcción del modelo de susceptibilidad se realizó soportado en el histograma de frecuencias, correlación de Pearson, Análisis Discriminante y Análisis de Componentes Principales. Para evaluar el desempeño, la capacidad de predicción y los criterios de zonificación en alto, medio y bajo de cada uno de los métodos utilizados se utilizó el análisis ROC. Para la regresión logística se obtuvo un área bajo la curva del 76.8 % para el desempeño y 77.5 % para la capacidad de predicción, mientras que para el Peso de la Evidencia se obtuvo un 77.8% en el desempeño y 77.5% en la predicción, señalando resultados satisfactorios que permiten la incorporación de dichos resultados en los estudios básicos necesarios para la ordenación del territorio.
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