Aplicación del modelo Zavgren en el análisis de la insolvencia financiera en el sector constructor entre 2018-2022
Resumen
Objetivo: identificar la viabilidad del uso del modelo Zavgren en empresas del sector constructor colombiano para medir la probabilidad de insolvencia financiera entre los años 2018 y 2022.
Diseño/metodología: la investigación se desarrolla con un enfoque cuantitativo de tipo exploratorio y descriptivo. Este alcance de investigación busca medir la viabilidad del modelo Zavgren como herramienta de predicción en empresas del sector constructor de Colombia; para tal fin se analizan 734 empresas que reportaron información financiera de forma sistemática entre 2018-2022.
Resultados: más del 80 % de las empresas evaluadas se ubicaron en la zona de quiebra, lo que refleja una vulnerabilidad significativa en el sector. Sin embargo, se observaron variaciones interanuales en los niveles de riesgo de insolvencia financiera, mostrando que, aunque el modelo marca un riesgo elevado, existe heterogeneidad en las condiciones de insolvencia financiera de las empresas.
Conclusiones: hay una alta proporción de empresas en riesgo de insolvencia financiera y una heterogeneidad significativa en los resultados que sugiere variaciones en los niveles de riesgo de quiebra entre las empresas. Este patrón de resultados muestra que el modelo es efectivo para señalar el riesgo global de insolvencia en el sector, pero su capacidad para descifrar entre diferentes niveles de riesgo es limitada. Esto se debe a factores específicos y características del sector que no son capturadas por el modelo.
Originalidad: esta investigación, primera en aplicar el modelo Zavgren en Colombia, evidencia su relevancia y sus limitaciones en el entorno nacional. El estudio contiene análisis estadísticos transversales y longitudinales en una ventana de observación de cinco años, lo que permite una comprensión de las dinámicas de insolvencia financiera y el impacto de variables endógenas empresariales. La investigación pone en evidencia la importancia de adaptar modelos de predicción de insolvencia para las características específicas de mercados emergentes como el colombiano.
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