Análisis por confiabilidad de la estabilidad de muros de pilas excavadas considerando las incertidumbres de los parámetros
Resumen
En ingeniería geotécnica, la estabilidad de muros de pilas excavadas es evaluada mediante métodos de diseño determinísticos que se basan en el uso de factores de seguridad para establecer un margen para la falla. En los últimos años, se han adoptado métodos de diseño basados en la confiabilidad para involucrar la incertidumbre en la evaluación de la estabilidad de los muros, así como para el cálculo de la profundidad de empotramiento factible para los muros. En este estudio, se aplica un enfoque de diseño basado en la confiabilidad ampliada para desarrollar análisis paramétricos de la estabilidad de un muro de pilas excavadas, junto con un análisis de elementos finitos. En el marco del diseño por estado límite de servicio, los resultados indican que la cohesión del suelo y el nivel freático son factores que afectan significativamente la estabilidad del muro. Una alta variabilidad en el rango de cohesión causa una gran variabilidad en la incertidumbre para determinar la profundidad de empotramiento del muro. La profundidad de empotramiento factible puede alcanzar 4 veces la altura libre considerando el coeficiente de variación máximo (50 %) de la cohesión del suelo. Por otro lado, cuando el nivel freático se ubica en la superficie del terreno retenido, el desplazamiento horizontal del extremo superior del muro alcanza 15.2 mm, equivalente a 0.0038 veces la altura libre del muro, para el cual el suelo alcanza a movilizar los empujes activos. También se encontró que la resolución de los resultados probabilísticos está altamente influenciada por el número de iteraciones en las simulaciones de Monte Carlo.
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