Estimación por intervalos de probabilidad a posteriori para la proporción de estudiantes universitarios desertores

  • Carlos J. Barrera-Causil Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
  • Juan de J. Sandoval Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
  • Fabio H. Sepúlveda-Murillo Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
Keywords: Probability intervals, estimation, distribution, Bayesian.

Abstract

This paper presents the estimation by posterior probability intervals of the proportion of students who drop out of Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano (ITM) considering some influential factors. Our interest is to determine the proportion of students who drop out of the institution by academic factor, occupational and personal factor. To implement the Bayesian methodology we use the elicitation technique and the Delphi method. Within the results, showed that, with a probability of 95% we can say that the occupational factor have a posterior percentage of incidence on drop out of ITM between 30,4% and 44,6%. Also, notice that the occupational factor and the academic factor are the most influential in the drop out of the institution.

Author Biographies

Carlos J. Barrera-Causil, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
Juan de J. Sandoval, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
Fabio H. Sepúlveda-Murillo, Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín
How to Cite
[1]
C. J. Barrera-Causil, J. de J. Sandoval, and F. H. Sepúlveda-Murillo, “Estimación por intervalos de probabilidad a posteriori para la proporción de estudiantes universitarios desertores”, TecnoL., no. 27, pp. 75-87, Dec. 2011.

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Published
2011-12-20
Section
Articles
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