Estimation and Modeling of Black Carbon in Aburrá Valley, Colombia
Abstract
Based on an inventory of atmospheric emissions in Aburrá Valley (Antioquia, Colombia) completed in 2015, this study presents an estimate of Black Carbon (BC) emissions in this region and the dispersion of this pollutant for November 9, 2016, as well as an evaluation of the CAMx and BRAMS models in the area under study. The estimated total emissions of BC were 850 tons, 97 % of which were due to the transport sector. In the latter, trucks, followed by dump trucks, were the largest emitters of this pollutant, contributing 43 % and 37 %, respectively. Diesel fuel was the main cause of BC emissions, with 95% of the total emissions. The maximum concentration of BC estimated for November 9, 2016, was 8.47 mg/m3 at 7:00 hours, and the area of greater impact was located downtown Medellín and north of the city. The performance of the CAMx model (fuzzy inference) in terms of the prediction of BC concentrations for the day under study was 66 %. The BRAMS model fit the real data of the meteorological variables investigated here (temperature and relative humidity), with MAPE errors under 3 % for the day on which the model was evaluated.
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