Elicitation of the Distribution of the Level of Importance of Landscape Restoration Activities in the Colombian Andes
Abstract
The definition and prioritization of landscape restoration activities in deforested areas are essential for the long-term health of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities that rely on forest ecosystem services. This study focused on the complex area of Belmira, Antioquia, in the Colombian Andes, where the main research objective was the identification of areas and restoration activities through a multicriteria spatial analysis and a multitemporal analysis. An innovative elicitation methodology was presented, considering the individual characteristics of each expert to estimate the importance of these activities. A wooden instrument with a numerical scale was designed for the elicitation process, controlling potential cognitive biases through structured protocols. Additionally, an algorithm was introduced to generate samples of elicited probability distributions using beta models, aiming to enhance result robustness. Findings highlight that watershed and soil restoration activities, along with live fences, are deemed of utmost importance by experts across the entire study area. These results suggest that environmental efforts in the region should be focused on these activities to generate a positive impact.
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Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano
Grant numbers P20244
