Estrategias de predicción de consumo energético en edificaciones: una revisión
Resumen
Los edificios son uno de los principales actores contaminantes del medio ambiente, por lo que es necesario fortalecer las estrategias para la reducción de su consumo energético, como el diseño energéticamente eficiente (edificios nuevos) y la gestión energética (edificios existentes). Para ello, es fundamental la predicción del consumo energético que permita conocer el estado de operación de la edificación e inferir sobre las causas de éste y la eficacia de las estrategias de ahorro energético. No obstante, la diversidad de técnicas de predicción del consumo energético existentes dificulta a investigadores su identificación, selección y aplicación. Por ello, a partir de una revisión de la literatura, este artículo identifica técnicas de predicción, expone sus principios teóricos, describe las etapas generales de construcción de un modelo de predicción, reconoce métricas de evaluación, identifica algunas de sus fortalezas y debilidades y presenta criterios para facilitar la selección de una técnica de predicción y métricas de evaluación según las características del caso de estudio. Se realizó un análisis bibliométrico como metodología para identificar y estudiar los artículos más importantes sobre demanda de energía en edificios. Se encuentra que hay tendencia en la aplicación de técnicas de aprendizaje automático y que los modelos de predicción de consumo energético son mayormente aplicados a edificaciones residenciales, comerciales y educativas.
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